Scientists warn that Axial Seamount, an undersea volcano off the Oregon coast, may soon erupt.
Based on the latest observations, experts predict this eruption could occur anytime between 2024 and 2025, Mail Online reported.
Axial Seamount rises more than 3,600 feet beneath the ocean surface and sits about 300 miles off Oregon's coastline. It has displayed significant signs of activity, mirroring the patterns that preceded its last eruption in 2015. This volcano, located on the Juan de Fuca ridge, holds the distinction of being the most active of its kind in the northeast Pacific.
In November, scientists detected swelling of the seafloor, revealing that magma was accumulating beneath the volcano. This swelling resembled the pre-eruption signs recorded before the 2015 event. Researchers also recorded numerous earthquakes, with daily occurrences often exceeding 500, clearly indicating rising magmatic activity.
William Chadwick, a geophysicist at Oregon State University, monitored the situation starting in November when the similarities to conditions before the last eruption became unmistakable. By July 2024, the seabed rose at a rate of approximately 10 inches per year, suggesting an accelerated progression toward an eruption.
The forecasting of underwater volcanic eruptions, particularly with a window as precise as a year, is relatively rare in geophysics. "The ability to forecast an eruption event more than 24 hours ahead is 'pretty unique,' let alone providing months of advanced notice," Chadwick explained to Science News, highlighting the notable advancements in volcanic prediction technologies since the last eruption.
Following the eruption in 2015, Axial Seamount quickly began to reinflate, regaining more than 95 percent of its shape before the eruption. The inflation slowed significantly from 2015 to 2023, nearly halting by the summer of 2023. This pattern has provided researchers ample data to refine the prediction models further.
The development of a new tool estimating the magma burst necessary to trigger an eruption has enhanced the predictability. This tool uses the swelling and seismic data to evaluate when the volcano might reach its critical threshold. Researchers reportedly expect the volcano to erupt once it returns to the inflation levels observed in 2015.
The announcement of the possible eruption window came last December. Researchers at the time stated, "Based on the current trends, and the assumption that Axial will be primed to erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold, our current eruption forecast window is between now (July 2024) and the end of 2025."
While the activity at Axial Seamount is high, the risk it poses to the coastal U.S. is minimal. Being a shield volcano, Axial's eruptions are typically less explosive compared to other types of volcanoes and are characterized by effusive lava flows rather than explosive bursts.
Furthermore, the seismic activity around Axial is minimal in terms of producing tsunamis or large earthquakes. This aspect dramatically reduces the risk to human populations and infrastructure on the West Coast, allowing nearby communities to remain safe even in the event of an eruption.
Despite the peace of mind regarding safety, the active status of Axial Seamount offers an invaluable opportunity for scientists to study and understand the mechanisms of underwater volcanoes. Each eruption cycle provides massive amounts of data crucial for refining eruption predictions not only at Axial but potentially at other similar undersea volcanoes globally.
The research ongoing at Axial Seamount not only advances the field of volcanology but also reinforces our ability to coexist with the dynamic processes of our planet, watching and learning as each layer unfolds. As William Chadwick pointed out, this sequence of observations and predictions leading to the current forecast represents their "best forecasting success," demonstrating significant strides in the domain of volcanic monitoring and prediction.
