By 2045, Texas is set to become the most populous state in the U.S., shifting demographic dominance away from California. This historic change is fueled by significant migration trends sparked by disparities in living conditions and economic opportunities between the two states.
Migration and economic trends point towards Texas surpassing California in population within the next two decades, Daily Mail reported.
Currently, Texas holds the second spot in terms of population size in the U.S., trailing California, which boasts 39 million residents. In contrast, Texas' population stands at 31 million but is expected to balloon to 42 million by 2045.
While California saw a slight population increase of 0.17 percent in 2023, this marks the first rise since 2019 when the state began experiencing notable declines. Factors prompting residents to leave include high living costs, poor quality of life, and unsatisfactory crime policies.
Post-pandemic, Texas has experienced a substantial economic boom, particularly benefiting its major cities such as Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin. From 2013 to 2023, the state witnessed a growth of nearly 4 million residents.
The growth spurt continues, with an added 562,941 citizens from July 2023 to July 2024. Businesses are also migrating, with Realtor.com shifting its headquarters from California to Austin, Texas, attracting more economic activities to the state.
Daniell Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, highlighted the state's economic dynamism, "In the years since the Covid-19 pandemic, the Texas economy has boomed, especially in high-demand industries like technology, education, manufacturing, and construction," indicating a robust integration of business and population growth.
Alongside economic benefits, Texas has responded to increased demand in its housing market by constructing more and smaller homes, according to Hale. This strategy not only meets the rising demand but also stabilizes the housing market more swiftly than in other parts of the nation.
About one-third of home buyers in Texas as of April 2023 originated from other states, up from one in five in 2019, illustrating Texas' growing appeal. Jackie Burse, who moved from California, expressed relief in Texas, "I'm a conservative and I feel like it's difficult to have any opinions in California other than liberal, especially when you're living in the cities."
Moreover, in cities like New Braunfels, economic success stories are unfolding. The gross regional product there reached $2.8 billion in 2021, doubling over the past decade and signaling thriving local economies bolstered by new residents and businesses.
The differing state policies have had a profound impact on resident satisfaction and migration patterns. California's governance under Gavin Newsom has faced criticism, particularly concerning the handling of homelessness and crime, further fueling the migration to Texas.
Migrants like Janelle Crossan have voiced their discontent with California's living conditions, "I never felt safe in my area. I felt like a prisoner in my apartment," contrasting sharply with her positive experiences in Texas, where she "dramatically improved her life direction and could afford a better home for similar costs."
This migration trend underscores a broader shift in preference among many Americans who seek not only better economic prospects but also a higher quality of life, safety, and a political climate more aligned with their personal beliefs.
The demographic shifts predicted for Texas highlight the significant changes American states are undergoing. These changes are not just numbers but represent shifts in economic power, cultural dynamics, and political influence.
As Texas continues to attract individuals and businesses, the state is likely to reshape not only its own landscape but also that of the nation, positioning itself as a new center of population and power by 2045.
As more businesses like Realtor.com make the move to Texas, the state's economic and demographic landscape continues to evolve, potentially setting new trends for how other states might address growth and migration in the future.
