Scientists anticipate that Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano situated off the Oregon coast, could erupt before the year concludes.
Axial Seamount's imminent eruption, forecasted for 2025, shows no immediate danger due to its underwater and non-explosive nature, Daily Mail reported.
Axial Seamount is not just any ordinary underwater volcano. Located about 300 miles from the Oregon coastline, it rises 3,600 feet above the seafloor and spans 1.25 miles in width, nestled deep beneath the ocean's surface at 4,626 feet. This geographical and geological positioning makes it a subject of intrigue and extensive study among researchers.
The volcano's consistent swelling and the detection of rumbling noises suggest increasing magma activity. These signs have led volcanologists to predict a forthcoming eruption within the next two years. Continuous monitoring is in place thanks to a fiber-optic cable system that transmits real-time data from the volcanic site back to researchers on land.
Axial Seamount belongs to the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a chain of underwater volcanoes stretching from Oregon to Alaska. Its classification as a young shield volcano points to its dynamic nature and continuous development. Scientists compare its geological characteristics with those of Mauna Loa, the largest active volcano on Earth.
The history of eruptions at Axial Seamount is well-documented, with notable events recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015. The 2015 eruption was particularly significant, marked by a dramatic increase in seismic activity leading up to the event, including a remarkable 9,000 earthquakes on the day of the eruption itself.
Following the 2015 eruption, studies indicated that the seafloor experienced inflation of over a meter annually, which slowed to about one centimeter a year by 2023. However, in 2024, the inflation rate jumped to roughly 25 centimeters a year, hinting at an augmented volcanic activity beneath the surface.
The immense water pressure at the depth where Axial Seamount resides plays a critical role in shaping the nature of its eruptions. This pressure suppresses explosive volcanic activity, leading to eruptions that involve the effusion of lava that cools and solidifies upon contact with the cold seawater.
As explained by Mike Poland, a leading volcanologist, deep-sea eruptions are subdued by this pressure, making explosive eruptions rare. "When Axial Seamount erupts, it'll look a lot like a Hawaiian lava flow eruption. It's not an explosive eruption, but calm effusions of lava flowing out of the caldera and across the seafloor," says Poland.
This phenomenon enables researchers to study the volcano without the typical risks associated with land-based volcanic eruptions. This has rendered Axial Seamount "probably the best-monitored submarine volcano in the world," according to Poland. The data collected from this monitoring offers invaluable insights into underwater volcanic behavior.
Advancements in technology have enhanced our ability to observe Axial Seamount. Bill Chadwick, another key researcher, emphasizes the constant data flow enabled by the fiber-optic cable system. "I can look at my laptop and see data that was collected 10 minutes ago at Axial," he notes, highlighting the immediacy and accuracy of the monitoring system.
Such real-time data, coupled with historical records of the volcano's behavior, help scientists like Chadwick predict future activities. He describes how Axial Seamount's summit inflates "like a balloon" due to magma pushing upwards. This inflation, followed by eventual deflation during an eruption, provides clear signs of when an eruption is likely to occur.
"In the last year, especially, there were several earthquakes, which are also monitored by this cable observatory, has increased. So, all these signs are pointing toward the final stages of the buildup to the next eruption," Chadwick explains. This valuable forewarning assists scientists in preparing and studying the eruption without the pressure of affecting nearby human populations.
The isolated location of Axial Seamount means that its activity provides a unique opportunity for scientific research without the direct risk to human lives. "People's lives aren't in the equation," Chadwick remarks, contrasting the predictive work at Axial with the more complicated and sometimes stressful monitoring of terrestrial volcanoes, where false alarms can lead to significant economic and social impacts.
The study of Axial Seamounts not only advances our understanding of submarine volcanism but also enhances our ability to forecast eruptions in other remote locations. Mike Poland encapsulates the broader significance: "That we as a society can forecast eruptions of a volcano that's offshore and under an awful lot of water, that's amazing. If you can develop a model for how this works at Axial, it gives us a starting point that we can apply elsewhere." This work paves the way for future volcanic monitoring and preparedness on a global scale.
