A French gambler, identified only as Théo, has turned a massive profit of approximately $48 million on bets placed through the crypto-based platform, Polymarket, betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the recent US presidential election.
In a high-stakes gamble, Théo placed a significant $30 million wager on Donald Trump, who ultimately won against Kamala Harris, earning him a staggering return and securing Trump's position as the 47th President of the United States, the New York Post reported.
Théo, known on Polymarket as a "whale" due to his large bets, managed four accounts to distribute his $30 million bet on Trump’s victory. He labeled these accounts Theo4, Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, and Michie, with each contributing to his total investment and subsequent windfall.
The cumulative winnings of approximately $48 million from these accounts varied, with Theo4 alone bringing in about $22 million and the remaining $26 million split among the other three accounts. His strategic spread of bets across multiple accounts demonstrated his savvy approach to betting.
Despite facing almost $3 million in unrealized losses just a day before the elections due to a volatile and tightly contested campaign, Théo remained confident in Trump’s victory. The morning before Election Day, Polymarket odds favored Trump with a 58.6% chance of winning, further solidifying Théo’s position.
Polymarket, a platform outside the regulatory reach of U.S. betting laws, saw over $3.7 billion wagered on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, creating a substantial market for electoral predictions. Unlike its U.S.-authorized counterpart Kalshi, Polymarket enabled global participation in such betting events.
This presidential election betting stirred significant attention, suggesting an evolution in how the public predicts and engages with electoral outcomes. Platforms like Polymarket are noted for predicting election results more accurately than traditional polls and media forecasts.
The success of crypto-betting platforms in forecasting has drawn attention to the potential predictive power of these markets. In this election cycle, Polymarket claimed a statistically higher accuracy than conventional polling methods, which have often faced criticism for their inaccuracies.
Polymarket and industry experts stated that the heightened engagement in betting over traditional polling draws deeper public involvement in political processes. John Phillips, co-founder and CEO of PredictIt, commented on the phenomenon, advocating that such platforms "increase engagement from people who might otherwise be disengaged."
Donald Trump's win not only impacted political landscapes but also validated the confidence of bettors like Théo, who saw through the public polling and media narratives to place a successful bet. Polymarket celebrated this as a demonstration of the "wisdom of markets" over traditional prediction methods.
After the election, Polymarket promoted its platform by engaging influencers across political spectrums, enhancing its visibility and utility as a reliable source of electoral data. This approach drove significant traffic to Polymarket’s site, where the majority of visitors engaged with election data rather than actively betting.
In interviews following the election results, Théo expressed that he placed the large sum bet purely for financial reasons. Speaking to The Wall Street Journal via Zoom, he stated, "My intent is just making money," indicating that political bias did not influence his betting decision.
He further clarified in a follow-up email, asserting, “I have absolutely no political agenda.” This statement sheds light on the nature of high-stake bettors who engage with prediction markets not out of political loyalty but for financial opportunities.
Polymarket highlighted the narrative of Théo’s win not merely as a personal victory but as a broader testament to the effectiveness and influence of market-based forecasting in political discourse. The platform's statement encapsulated this sentiment by stressing their success over polls, media, and pundits in forecasting political outcomes.
The substantial gains by Théo in the recent U.S. presidential election underscore the considerable impact that betting platforms like Polymarket can have on the perception and engagement of political events. This event illustrates the complex interplay between financial markets, political outcomes, and public engagement.
While the event has proven profitable for Théo, it also raises questions about the nature of betting, influence, and information consumption in political processes. As betting platforms grow in popularity, their role within the democratic framework will likely be subject to increased scrutiny and possibly regulation.
As platforms like Polymarket continue to evolve, their influence not only on political bettors but also on the general public and political participants is expected to deepen, potentially reshaping how political engagement and forecasting are viewed in the years to come.
